← All work Concept build · Prediction markets · 2026

Odds that come with the story.

Axiom is our concept for a prediction-market app. Every market shows its live probability, why it moved, and a trade you can place in two taps.

TypeConcept build, our own
We didProduct design, UI engineering
PlatformWeb, mobile-first
StackReact · Vite · Tailwind
8mobile screens designed end to end
5market categories, from politics to culture
2layouts from one design system
The short version

Lead with meaning. Digits come second.

The whole idea in 60 seconds, one product decision at a time.

01The problem

A number moved. Why?

Most prediction markets show a percentage and a chart. When it jumps, you are left guessing, so we put the reason next to the move.

AI brief per marketWhy it movedLinked headlines
02Probability first

Read the crowd before the digits.

Charts show probability, not price. Emerald means YES, ruby means NO, and the chart answers "what changed" as you scrub it.

03Two-tap trade

Pick a side. Pick an amount. Done.

The trade sheet slides up over the market, shows the payout before you confirm, and never leaves the page.

Bottom sheetQuick amountsPayout up front
04Portfolio

Every position, marked live.

Open and settled positions sit side by side, each with entry, current price and P&L that moves with the market.

Open vs settledLive P&LYour edge
05Depth when you want it

Signals, depth and the fine print.

Casual users never see it. Active traders get a live signals feed, an order book and the exact resolution rules.

Live signals

Headlines wired to the markets they move.

Each story shows the markets it touched and by how much.

BREAKING

Fed chair says cuts "not on the table" before summer

FOMC cut −7
POLITICS

Special elections show a 3–4 point suburban swing

House flip +4
CRYPTO

Spot ETF outflows hit a two-week high

BTC $90K −6
SPORTS

Celtics extend win streak to nine

NBA Finals +2
Order book

Depth on one screen.

Asks and bids, sized by volume.

54¢1,240
55¢2,015
56¢2,760
Spread 1¢ · last 53¢
53¢2,980
52¢2,140
51¢1,305
AI brief

Both sides of the bet.

A YES case and a NO case, written for every market.

YES CASERecent special elections show a swing in key suburban districts.
NO CASEThe incumbency map favours the majority in battleground seats.
Rules & context

Know exactly how it resolves.

Formal resolution rules sit one tab away from the chart, so trust never depends on guessing.

RulesMarket contextOrder book
Resolves YES if the Democratic Party holds 218 or more House seats after the 2026 general election, per certified results. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: official state certifications.
Context Crowd conviction is medium. Probability has moved up 4 points in 24 hours on fundraising and special-election data.
Depth 2,980 shares bid at 53¢, 1,240 asked at 54¢. Spread is 1¢, the tightest this week.
06The real build

Designed in Figma, shipped in React.

A screen recording of the working MVP: onboarding, the markets feed, a market page, discovery and trading.

axiom.markets
9:41
Axiom mobile: all markets with breaking news and hot topics
9:41
Axiom mobile: trade sheet with outcomes and quick amounts
9:41
Axiom mobile: discover screen with trending markets and topics

Real screens from the MVP. Markets, prices and balances are simulated.

FigmaReactViteTailwindClaude CodeCustom SVG chartsSimulated live feedVercel
"Turn gambling on outcomes into trading on truth."
The goal we set in the product brief: a feed that explains itself, not a list of odds.
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